Preseason Rankings
Northwestern St.
Southland
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-11.1#328
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.4#168
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-7.2#335
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#293
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 10.1% 38.8% 9.6%
.500 or above in Conference 21.4% 47.4% 21.0%
Conference Champion 0.8% 2.1% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 24.7% 7.2% 25.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 1.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.90.0 - 1.9
Quad 1b0.0 - 1.30.0 - 3.2
Quad 20.1 - 1.80.1 - 5.0
Quad 30.6 - 4.60.7 - 9.6
Quad 47.7 - 10.08.4 - 19.6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2018 56   @ SMU L 56-76 2%    
  Nov 13, 2018 63   @ BYU L 59-78 2%    
  Nov 17, 2018 323   @ Rice L 69-70 35%    
  Nov 19, 2018 37   @ Houston L 60-82 1%    
  Nov 23, 2018 349   Alabama A&M W 69-64 75%    
  Nov 27, 2018 210   Louisiana Monroe L 63-71 33%    
  Dec 01, 2018 249   @ UTEP L 65-71 22%    
  Dec 03, 2018 64   @ Texas A&M L 61-80 3%    
  Dec 12, 2018 29   @ Texas Tech L 56-79 1%    
  Dec 15, 2018 343   Southern W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 02, 2019 263   Nicholls St. L 72-77 42%    
  Jan 05, 2019 304   McNeese St. L 71-74 50%    
  Jan 09, 2019 309   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-69 52%    
  Jan 12, 2019 105   @ Stephen F. Austin L 64-79 6%    
  Jan 19, 2019 230   @ Abilene Christian L 66-73 19%    
  Jan 23, 2019 258   Sam Houston St. L 65-71 41%    
  Jan 26, 2019 236   SE Louisiana L 64-71 37%    
  Jan 30, 2019 292   @ New Orleans L 65-69 28%    
  Feb 02, 2019 303   @ Central Arkansas L 74-77 30%    
  Feb 06, 2019 292   New Orleans L 65-69 47%    
  Feb 09, 2019 304   @ McNeese St. L 71-74 32%    
  Feb 13, 2019 227   @ Lamar L 66-73 20%    
  Feb 16, 2019 105   Stephen F. Austin L 64-79 16%    
  Feb 20, 2019 312   @ Houston Baptist L 76-78 33%    
  Feb 27, 2019 330   Incarnate Word W 72-71 60%    
  Mar 02, 2019 236   @ SE Louisiana L 64-71 21%    
  Mar 06, 2019 263   @ Nicholls St. L 72-77 25%    
  Mar 09, 2019 303   Central Arkansas L 74-77 50%    
Projected Record 8.4 - 19.6 6.1 - 11.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.9 1.6 0.2 5.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 3.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.2 3.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.5 1.3 0.1 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.2 2.0 0.1 0.0 10.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 3.3 5.5 3.1 0.3 0.0 13.2 11th
12th 0.2 1.7 4.3 5.5 3.2 0.4 0.0 15.5 12th
13th 1.1 3.2 4.9 5.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 16.6 13th
Total 1.1 3.4 6.7 10.4 11.3 12.8 12.6 10.9 9.4 7.3 5.5 3.7 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 98.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 69.0% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 40.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.1
15-3 0.4% 0.4
14-4 0.6% 0.6
13-5 1.6% 1.6
12-6 2.3% 2.3
11-7 3.7% 3.7
10-8 5.5% 5.5
9-9 7.3% 7.3
8-10 9.4% 9.4
7-11 10.9% 10.9
6-12 12.6% 12.6
5-13 12.8% 12.8
4-14 11.3% 11.3
3-15 10.4% 10.4
2-16 6.7% 6.7
1-17 3.4% 3.4
0-18 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%